It seemed like it would never end, but it looks like it might. 

Of course, we dare not lower our guard or be silly about it all, as CV-19 demands respect. 

But new cases are steadily dropping. Yesterday we had 6,700 new cases, which is still high but less than half our peak. 

Our total recoveries are 72% and when you consider that recoveries from new cases in the past two weeks will be be low, the effective recovery rate is really closer to 80%.

Deaths are also stabilized and starting to fall, but deaths will always lag cases, so expect them to taper in coming days.


The graph shows daily recoveries increasing and daily new cases falling, but deaths are a small percentage of either. 

In fact our case mortality rate is notably low at 1.8%, compared to a global rate of 3.6%. 

Had we tested more, our case mortality rate would be even lower, likely even below 1%. We also rank 32nd in the world. 

On top of that we had a flu free season, the first in decades and we had fewer deaths from accidents, murders and so on. 

So we have effectively seen fewer deaths overall in South Africa this year, which confirms that as a nation we have done well. 

The state will meet this week to map out strategies for lock-down easing, so level-2 does seem to be increasingly likely. 

But our success is thanks to extensive compliance with lock-down measures. We have pulled together as a nation. 

And far from all the rumors about this being a state oppression exercise, there has been a lot of flexibility, transparency and compassion. But actions taken have also paid off. 

(c) Peter Missing @ me2u2all.blogspot.com